Analysis: The week Brett Kavanaugh went from sure thing to not

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Politics May 1, 2020

Washington (CNN)A lot can change in a week in Washington.

Seven days ago, Judge Brett Kavanaugh seemed certain to be the next Supreme Court justice. A vote had been set in the Senate Judiciary Committee for this Thursday and the expectation was that all 11 Republicans would vote for him, ensuring that he would get a full floor vote. Where, in the very near future, the Republican majority would confirm him for the seat being vacated by retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy.

Then came the news Sunday that a woman named Christine Blasey Ford, a professor in California, had spoken to The Washington Post — putting a name and a face to the previously anonymous allegations that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted a woman when they were both teenagers in the early 1980s.

Suddenly, everything was up in the air.

The past five days have been dominated by Senate Republicans and the White House trying to wrap their arms around just how big a problem all of this is for Kavanaugh’s confirmation. And each time they seemed to have a handle on it, the story started in another direction.

Here’s where we’ve landed (I think) at the end of this week: There is a very high likelihood that Ford and Kavanaugh will testify — separately — next week. The exact day remains up in the air as does whether the senators who sit on the committee will be the only people allowed to ask questions of the two witnesses. But Ford’s attorneys and the Judiciary Committee are now talking — and at this point it’s hard to see how they don’t find a way to get to an agreement, particularly given the stakes.

As I’ve written, a hearing featuring Ford telling her story lessens the chances of Kavanaugh getting confirmed if for no other reason than it adds an element of uncertainty and drama into a proceeding that seemed drama-free at this time last week.

The Point, part 1: It remains true that Republicans have a one-seat edge on the Judiciary Committee, meaning that if they all support the President’s nominee — regardless of what Ford says — Kavanaugh will make it out of committee and will likely be confirmed.

The Point, part 2: It is also true, however, that Ford’s testimony — and what Kavanaugh says in response — could change things, perhaps profoundly. When the eyes of the country are on the two of them — and the 21 senators on the Judiciary Committee — it’s impossible to predict the final outcome.

Below, the week that was in Kavanaugh (and other) news in 27 headlines:

Monday:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Friday: